Product Release Estimation

1. Prioritize the product backlog.
2. Ask your scrum team to select the best user stories to work on a single sprint.
3. Example — 2+5+3+2+8 = 20 Story Points.
4. Best case initial velocity = 20
5. Worst case initial velocity = 20 x 30% = (20–6) = 14
6. Calculating how many sprints

Best Case Sprints
Total story points/ Best Case Initial velocity =Total Sprints

140 (MVP1+MVP2)/ 20 =7 Sprints

Worst Case Sprints (with contingency)

Total story points/ Best Case Initial velocity =Total Sprints

140 (MVP1+MVP2)/ 14=10 Sprints

7. Calculating how many sprints for a release date

In another month (Assume today is 20/11/2022, so in another month means 20/12/2022),

Best Case Sprints

How many sprints to date x Best Case Initial Velocity = Total Story Points to date

4 x 20 = 80 Story Points

Worst Case Sprints

How many sprints to date x Best Case Initial Velocity = Total Story Points to date

4 x 14 = 56 Story Points

So to that date, we can deliver 56–80 Story Points

Gayathra Ranasinghe — Project Lead / Scrum Master
Certified Scrum Master(CSM), BEng(Hons),MBA,BTEC(AM),AMIESL,AMIMechE